Technical Analysis - Charts and Commentary

The following was sent pre-market on November 12^th and on stocktwits.com.

$KZ has been penalized enough for a 25% jump in 6 trading days with 50% of that time coloring outside the lines.

Almost no short interest.

Tech Rating: 1.5 (November 11^th pre-open)

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

We close out another profitable bearish call for a potention to 25 to 12.4% gain with apossible new trend forming: bullish MACD, CCI and Stochastic.

The trend is weak and the moving average juxtaposition are not yet supportive; tread carefully and keep stops tight.

Price and moving averages:

QIHU 360 has closed above its short term moving average.

Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.

Mid term moving average is currently below long term

The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:

QIHU has closed below upper band by 30.9%.

Bollinger Bands are 31.8% narrower than normal.

The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

CCI: is now in positive range and generated a buy signal  1 bar ago.

MACD:

Crossovers:

            Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.

            MACD crossed above its signal line 19 bars ago.

            Since MACD crossed its moving average, QIHU's price has increased 14.69%

            and has ranged from a high of 74.76 to a low of 60.25

MACD is not in an overbought/oversold range.

There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

**This commentary is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

About the Technical Rating Indicator

The Technical Rating Indicator combines established methods of technical analysis along with regression analysis and a weighting system based on signal strength to provide a technical rating. Note that none of the indicators use standard settings, and none of the settings have been optimized to fit a particular data set (avoiding in-sample bias).

The result is a clean, proprietary technical research rating system.

The Technical Rating Indicator is expressed in values ranging from -3 to +3.

A technical rating of -3 is issued when all individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of negative prices (i.e. conditions are “bearish” for the stock price, based on historical analysis). A technical rating of +3 is issued when the individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of positive price movement (i.e. conditions are “bullish” for the stock, based on historical analysis). Intermediate readings indicate a mix of signals from the inputs to the Technical Rating Indicator.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

Tech Rating: 2 (November 11^th pre-open)

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This makes us nervous. The stock has come up for a rerating at bullish but with several negative caveats:

·         Price has colored outside the lines on 3 of the last 4 trading days

·         RSI is in overbought territory

·         CCI just came off of an almost perfect short value and it still indicates a sell

However, investors are loving the company as we can tell in the volume action over the last few days.

Lastly, when the 4 days of short interest (7.9% of float) reads news of phone maker Xiaomi buying a stake in YOKU, there is the potential of more upside – overbought indicators be damned.

Price and moving averages:

Youku Tudou has closed above its short term moving average.

Short term moving average is currently above mid term, and above long term moving averages.

Mid term moving average is currently below long term

The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and neutral to cautionary in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:

YOKU has closed below upper band by 6.0%.

Bollinger Bands are 27.1% wider than normal.

The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

CCI is now in an extremely high positive range and generated a sell signal on prior close.

MACD

Crossovers:

            Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.

            MACD crossed above its signal line 18 bars ago.

            Since MACD crossed its moving average, YOKU's price has increased 24.11%

            and has ranged from a high of 22.34 to a low of 16.71

MACD is not in an overbought/oversold range.

There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

**This commentary is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

About the Technical Rating Indicator

The Technical Rating Indicator combines established methods of technical analysis along with regression analysis and a weighting system based on signal strength to provide a technical rating. Note that none of the indicators use standard settings, and none of the settings have been optimized to fit a particular data set (avoiding in-sample bias).

The result is a clean, proprietary technical research rating system.

The Technical Rating Indicator is expressed in values ranging from -3 to +3.

A technical rating of -3 is issued when all individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of negative prices (i.e. conditions are “bearish” for the stock price, based on historical analysis). A technical rating of +3 is issued when the individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of positive price movement (i.e. conditions are “bullish” for the stock, based on historical analysis). Intermediate readings indicate a mix of signals from the inputs to the Technical Rating Indicator.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

Tech Rating: 2 (November 12^th pre-open)

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

Points to note on the technical analysis in leading, trending and volatility indicators with bullish stochastic (rising crossover), CCI, MACD and Bollinger Bands. Additionally, our unpublished trend indicator is at a reading of medium strong.

Negative points: moving average juxtaposition, toppy stochastic and lack of enthusiasm as illuminated in the lackluster volume.

This could be a new trend forming; however, the narrowing Bollinger bands can cut both ways with a sharp move up or down. Keep a tight stop on any new positions. We’ve been burned twice this year re-rating this as bullish.

Price and moving averages:

Sina Corp has closed above its short term moving average.

Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.

Mid term moving average is currently below long term

The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:

SINA has closed below upper band by 12.4%.

Bollinger Bands are 52.5% narrower than normal.

The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to SINA's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 5 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CCI is now in positive range and generated a buy signal  1 bar ago.

MACD

Crossovers:

            Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.

            MACD crossed above its signal line 16 bars ago.

            Since MACD crossed its moving average, SINA's price has increased 4.10%

            and has ranged from a high of 42.16 to a low of 38.78

MACD is not in an overbought/oversold range.

There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

**This commentary is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

About the Technical Rating Indicator

The Technical Rating Indicator combines established methods of technical analysis along with regression analysis and a weighting system based on signal strength to provide a technical rating. Note that none of the indicators use standard settings, and none of the settings have been optimized to fit a particular data set (avoiding in-sample bias).

The result is a clean, proprietary technical research rating system.

The Technical Rating Indicator is expressed in values ranging from -3 to +3.

A technical rating of -3 is issued when all individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of negative prices (i.e. conditions are “bearish” for the stock price, based on historical analysis). A technical rating of +3 is issued when the individual indicators are exhibiting readings consistent with previous periods of positive price movement (i.e. conditions are “bullish” for the stock, based on historical analysis). Intermediate readings indicate a mix of signals from the inputs to the Technical Rating Indicator.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.