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HSI - not time yet - from our weekend notes

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Monday, June 23, 2014 0 comments
Over the weekend we publish to a few friends and potential clients in a private message. This was our discussion on the HSI as of the close Friday, June 20th.
Recent upgrades include DANG for ~8%, HOLI for ~11% in two weeks.

Tech Rating: -2
This is a case of trend follower beware. We see price and the GURU moving averages stacked up in order vertically above price  in what looks a fresh trend. However, all other signals are weighing in with regression analysis throwing strength in for negative price movement. GURU MACD and GURU Stochastics are trading below signal line and in the wrong side of an arc with a negative slope on our settings. The GURU CCI is neutral as is RSI – there wasn’t any strength in the recent top. Add to that the decreasing volume since the start of June and this looks like a dog.

There has been a long disconnect between HSI performance and China. For instance: Dongfeng/600006 was 2.75 a year ago and is now up 6% in 12 months while Dongfeng/489 was 10.28 and is now up 32% in 12 months. It doesn’t get better looking at two years where the Mainland listing is -12% and the HK listing is +5%.

Price and GURU moving averages:
^HSI(Hang Seng) has closed above its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently above mid term, and above long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently above long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and bullish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:
^HSI(Hang Seng) has closed below upper band by 48.4%.
Bollinger Bands are 71.1% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to ^HSI(Hang Seng)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 12 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

GURU Stochastic K is below D by nearly ~8 points and both are sounding the dive klaxon. Ask anyone that has sat next to me on a trading floor where I had the dive klaxon.wav linked to my Bloomberg terminal with real time prices – that is damned annoying!

GURU CCI is neutral at 31

GURU MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
MACD crossed below its signal line 3 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, ^HSI's price has decreased -0.04%
and has ranged from a high of 23,300.311 to a low of 23,122.750
Overbought/Oversold: not in an overbought/oversold range.
Divergence: there have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

NPD - time for a new perscription? rated as bearish

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Friday, June 20, 2014 0 comments
Tech Rating: -2.25
If you add short term GURU exponential moving average crossing under the GURU mid term, price under short term plus a sell indication from GURU CCI and stochastics that continue to fall in an environment where the stock is NOT oversold = sell. 

Price and moving averages:
NPD(China Nepstar Drugstore) has closed below its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages, however, Mid term moving average is currently above long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and neutral to cautionary in mid-long term.  

Bollinger Bands:
NPD(China Nepstar Drugstore) has closed above bottom band by 28.7%.

Bollinger Bands are 58.3% narrower than normal.

The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to NPD(China Nepstar Drugstore)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 33 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CCI is now in negative range at -79.48

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
MACD crossed below its signal line 10 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, NPD's price has decreased -2.54%
  and has ranged from a high of  2.430 to a low of  2.260

Overbought/Oversold: MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence: There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods. 

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

51JOBS: you're hired! upraded to bullish

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Tech Rating: 2
Upgraded from -2

With the recent across-the-board upturn in the GURU technical indicators going against the call from short term, mid term and long term GURU exponential moving averages, JOBS is either going to pop or flop soon. With volume trending up on the past three uptick days vs. the uneventful June 10th and 11th trading days, it looks like several traders/investors are betting on the pop.

Price and moving averages:
JOBS(51 Jobs) has closed above its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:
JOBS(51 Jobs) has closed below upper band by 7.4%.

Bollinger Bands are 51.7% narrower than normal.

The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to JOBS(51 Jobs)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 4 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CCI is now in positive range at 150.04 and our GURU CCI gave a buy indication 2 trading days ago.

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 10 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, JOBS's price has increased 4.28% and has ranged from a high of 64.21 to a low of 59.00
Overbought/Oversold: MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence: There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

 
Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

China Lodging: time to check out? Downgraded to bearish

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Wednesday, June 18, 2014 0 comments

Tech Rating: -1.5

Previously rated as bullish (1) 

Price and moving averages:
HTHT(China Lodging) has closed above its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently above mid term, and above long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term

The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and neutral to cautionary in mid-long term.

Despite the short term and mid term tops on recent closes, the rest of our GURU indicators are weighing in heavier toward the bear side. Combining the falling MACD and GURU stochastics with the narrowing of the Bollinger bands, this could go worse quickly. The technical situation is precarious at this point.

Bollinger Bands:
HTHT(China Lodging) has closed below upper band by 43.3%.
Bollinger Bands are 65.1% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to HTHT(China Lodging)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 1 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

While not a hard rule, often the stock breaks down when trending above mid point in an environment of narrowing volatility.

CCI is now in neutral range with a reading of 23.4 and no signals in several days

MACD
Crossovers:
     Currently MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
     MACD crossed below its signal line 2 period(s) ago.
     Since MACD crossed its moving average, HTHT's price has increased 2.63%
     and has ranged from a high of 25.13 to a low of 24.16
Overbought/Oversold:
      MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
     There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

Current rating is -1.5

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

QIHU upgrade on new movement

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments

Tech Rating: 1.5
Previously rated bearish

Price and moving averages:
QIHU(QIHU 360) has closed above its short term moving average. However, when combined with volume behind recent positive days, the GURU MACD signal going positive along with rising GURU stochastics, there may be a new trend developing.
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.  

Bollinger Bands:
QIHU has closed below upper band by 32.9% and Bollinger Bands are 30.3% narrower than normal.
Nothing yet to get excited about here in the BB department

CCI is now in neutral range with a value of 21.9

MACD
Crossovers:
    Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
    MACD crossed above its signal line 4 period(s) ago.
       Since MACD crossed its moving average, QIHU's price has increased 1.35%
       and has ranged from a high of 91.120 to a low of 84.200
Overbought/Oversold:
    MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
  There have been no divergence signals within the past trading week.

 
Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary. 

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days. 

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

LITB - its dark in the box - initiation at bearish

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Thursday, June 12, 2014 4 comments
Initiation of coverage with a Tech Rating of -0.5

 The only thing keeping the junk in this box from being our ultimate bearish rating of 3 is that the sell pressure has dropped corresponding to the lack of interest which allowed the GURU MACD signal to drift close to and GURU RSI to ride back in the middle of the stream after spending most of April and the first part of May in oversold territory.

 The activity also saw the close above short term GURU averages a few times in the past couple of weeks.

 Almost all signs are, of course, negative (you didn't need us to tell you that) but unless we've missed something drastically, positively earthshaking in the company's communications, the relief rally is over. With the extreme narrowing of the GURU Bollinger bands, this stock is due an aggressive move.

Price and moving averages:
LITB(Light In the Box) has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
LITB(Light In the Box) has closed below upper band by 41.9%. 
Bollinger Bands are 56.0% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to LITB(Light In the Box)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 34 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

GURU CCI is at a neutral 15.8

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 37 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, LITB's price has decreased -4.68%
and has ranged from a high of  5.90 to a low of  4.61
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

 Current rating is -.50

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

HTHT UPGRADED from 0 to 1

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Tuesday, June 10, 2014 0 comments
During our initiation of coverage note last week we noted that China Lodging had a few positive indicators arising but the conflict in our regression and strength weightings left it with a Tech Rating of 0. That has changed with our short term exponential moving average peeking above mid term and long term averages. Stochastics in overbought, RSI without much headroom and our unpublished trend indicator at maximum prevent a higher rating for now.

 Price and moving averages:
HTHT(China Lodging) has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently above mid term, and above long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and neutral to cautionary in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
HTHT(China Lodging) has closed below upper band by 28.3%. 
Bollinger Bands are 28.1% wider than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

 CCI is in our neutral range at 60.452

 MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 17 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, HTHT's price has increased 15.01%
and has ranged from a high of 25.99 to a low of 21.20
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

 Current rating is 1

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

GOLDEN DRAGON - UPGRADED

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Previously rated at a -2, movement on Monday brings to light several factors which drive us to upgrade PGJ to a new Tech Rating of 1.75. 

 Price and moving averages:
PGJ (Power Shares Golden Dragon) has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term; however, our exponential moving averages have all turned up and are flat (longest term) to rising.

 Bollinger Bands:
PGJ(Power Shares Golden Dragon) has closed below upper band by 24.5%. 
Bollinger Bands are 50.5% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to PGJ(Power Shares Golden Dragon)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. This narrowing has just occurred. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

 CCI =  90.296
CCI is entering positive range

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 18 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, PGJ's price has increased 5.16%
and has ranged from a high of 29.56 to a low of 27.18
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
There have been no divergence signals within the last several bars.

 Current rating is 1.75

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

SINA - UPGRADE - yes, upgrade

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
We can almost hear the screams of "why" and "are you kidding me?". Let us explain why our Tech Rating of 1.5 should have you watching SINA. Forget the UGLY exponential moving average slopes and positions for just a moment; RSI has been slowly rising since the beginning of May, stochastic signals are also on the move. Even our MACD signal shows some potential, although in negative territory, with a rise over greater than 10 trading days.

Price and moving averages:
SINA (Sina Corp) has closed below its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
SINA (Sina Corp) has closed above bottom band by 48.9%. 
Bollinger Bands are 53.4% narrower than normal (though not as narrow as May 19th!).
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to SINA's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 18 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

 CCI is in a neutral range at -6.456; we don't call a sell or short until well into the negatives.

MACD:
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 22 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, SINA's price has decreased -4.11%
and has ranged from a high of 49.25 to a low of 42.40
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
MACD has continued to rise while the price has dropped since the start of May.

 Current rating is 1.5

 Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

KONG - as we thought

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
June 5th we posted our initial coverage note as a "pre-downgrade"; that downgrade happened quickly. At that time, our exponential moving averages weren't giving a clear picture, MACD was drifting, RSI was weakish and stochastics were weak, but not giving guidance. That changed Friday and Monday to put this name near our most bearish rating with a score of -2.5.

 Price and moving averages:
KONG (Kong Zhong) has closed below its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
KONG(Kong Zhong) has closed above bottom band by 13.4%. 
Bollinger Bands are 40.9% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to KONG(Kong Zhong)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 8 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range. They have widened just a tad over the last trading day.

 CCI is now in the negative range of -103.152

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
MACD crossed below its signal line 1 period ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, KONG's price has decreased -0.90%
and has ranged from a high of  9.27 to a low of  8.75
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

 Current rating is -2.5

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

DANG DANG upgraded rating

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Monday, June 9, 2014 0 comments
Tech Rating: 1.25, is this chart good enough to make a decision yet? Probably not. There is a little issue with CCI being overbought and the juxtaposition of the exponential moving averages. Other indicators, while weak, are showing signs of life. Put this on the radar, but don't call it into fire control just yet.

Price and moving averages:
DANG(Dangdang) has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, and below long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is currently below long term
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

Bollinger Bands:
DANG(Dangdang) has closed above the upper band by 18.6%. 
Bollinger Bands are 62.0% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to DANG(Dangdang)'s normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 3 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CCI = 204.975 and has generated a buy signal but that signal is in the overbought range.

MACD
Crossovers:
Currently MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.
MACD crossed above its signal line 10 period(s) ago.
Since MACD crossed its moving average, DANG's price has increased 13.48%
and has ranged from a high of 11.33 to a low of  9.59
Overbought/Oversold:
MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
Divergence:
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

Current rating is 1.25

  Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

Power Shares Golden Dragon - Smaug it ain't

Posted by Unknown Saturday, June 7, 2014 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
PGJ (Power Shares Golden Dragon) has closed above its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, AND below long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:
PGJ (Power Shares Golden Dragon) has closed below upper band by 32.9%.
Bollinger Bands are 39.1% narrower than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

Stochastics indicate continued selling.

Volume on the last few upticks has been weak.

Our unpublished trend indicator is neutral.

Current rating is -2

Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.


  

GAME UPGRADED TO 3 - EXPECT A POP

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Friday, June 6, 2014 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
Shanda Games has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently above mid term, and above long term moving averages.
Mid term moving average is above long term moving average.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and bullish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
Shanda Games has closed below upper band by 42.0%. 
Bollinger Bands are 78.8% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to Shanda Games's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 76 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

 Current rating is 3

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 Expect Shanda could see a pop from here as it re-starts its uptrend. The stock has traded in a narrow range right around its short term average and is at an RSI of 56 - this "right in the middle" setup with narrowing Bollinger Bands looks like the right environment for a lift. Additionally our unpublished trend strength has weakened over the past three week. Let's see.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

HOLI: bullish; early signs of a new trend

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood Thursday, June 5, 2014 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
HollySys Automation has moved above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently above mid term, AND above long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bullish in short term, and bullish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
HollySys Automation has closed below upper band by 19.5%. 
Bollinger Bands are 16.0% wider than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

 Stochastics indicate continued buying. It would be nice to see the mid April volume come back.

 Our unpublished trend rating is weak, indicating that this is either the beginning of a trend or a false positive. With an RSI in the mid 50s, but on the rise, it could be the start of a new trend.

 Current rating is 3

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

SOHU - so bad it could come good (for a day or two)

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
Sohu.com has closed below its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, AND below long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
Sohu.com has closed below the lower band by 6.9%. Although prices have broken the lower band and a downside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario for Sohu.com is to continue within current trading range.
This picture becomes somewhat unclear due to the fact that Bollinger Bands are  currently 54.6% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to Sohu.com's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 14 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

 CCI is -218.634 and called for a short position to be entered one trading day ago; currently in oversold territory.

 Current rating is -3

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 Note: Our unpublished trend rank is very strong, the ticker is not yet oversold and these points are aligned with the stochastic picture of a continued sell. However the outside of Bollinger Band move points to a possible short term upward move; that could be today or tomorrow.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

Kong (no king) PRE DOWNGRADE INITIATION

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
Kong Zhong has closed below its short term moving average.
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, BUT above long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and neutral to cautionary in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:
Kong Zhong has closed above bottom band by 30.9%.
Bollinger Bands are 51.6% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to Kong Zhong's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 4 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

Volume: a good day for this ticker is near 1,500 – it traded 2/3rds of that last night while dropping 1.9%; even on an uptick during the end of May the ticker had trouble with 1,000 shares changing hands. Nobody likes me, everybody hates me, so I think I’ll go eat wooor---eeerrr-errms….

Current rating is: 0

  Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

Stochastics show selling to continue and our unpublished trend strength is near 0. Combined with the other negative to mixed data, we expect to downgrade KONG very shortly.


This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.


Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

QI WHO?

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
QIHU 360 has closed below its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, AND below long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
QIHU 360 has closed above bottom band by 44.8%. 
Bollinger Bands are 5.1% wider than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices. Thus it can be safe to say that this ticker continues to weaken.

Volume: anemic; the hope and short covering from the 28th of May is gone (80k traded).

 CCI: -20.883; not strong enough to call a short, but when combined with all the other negatives...

Current rating is -3

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

Nobody is looking, but you're fired! 51 Jobs

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
51 Jobs has closed below its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, AND below long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: bearish in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
51 Jobs has closed above bottom band by 20.5%. 
Bollinger Bands are 43.8% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to 51 Jobs's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 4 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

 Volume: that has got to hurt - nobody cares

 Stochastics: clearly the selling is not done.

 Current rating is -2

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary. 

 Last night's 20bps uptick could be all we see before it gets re-rated at our most bearish -3. Our unpublished trend strength indicator is near a bottom.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

HMIN - Does anyone care?

Posted by Hank.Terrebrood 0 comments
Price and moving averages:
Home Inns & Hotels has closed above its short term moving average. 
Short term moving average is currently below mid term, AND below long term moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short term, and bearish in mid-long term. 

 Bollinger Bands:
Home Inns & Hotels has closed below upper band by 29.2%. 
Bollinger Bands are 25.6% narrower than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

 Volume is abysmal and interest clearly continues to wan.

 Current rating is -2
  ** price is currently above the short term average and thus doesn't qualify the ticker for the most bearish rating - a close below 30.00 will see a downgrade.

   Tech ratings are 3 to -3 indicating bullish to bearish; a zero is neutral to cautionary.

 This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use at your own risk.

 Disclosure: the firm does not currently hold a position in this stock and has no plans to create a long or short position over the next 5 business days.

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